While children are told stories about elves and reindeer, the truth is that hundreds of thousands of people work year-round to make sure Christmas feels magical. From factory employees in China stringing lights on artificial trees to dock workers unloading containers of toys, this vast labor force ensures Americans can choose from a wide selection of decorations and gifts each December. But all of that is in peril this year as President Donald Trump’s disruptive tariff policies threaten to halt a big chunk of global trade.
Across almost every industry, businesses that depend on international trade are waiting in agony as Trump’s tariff standoff with China continues. Some are pausing their orders, while others are scrambling to find alternative suppliers. The disruption, which has dragged on for almost a month, is particularly damaging to industries that run on strict seasonal production cycles, such as for holidays like Christmas. “If you miss this sales cycle, you have to wait the entire year. Nobody wants a Christmas tree after Christmas,” says Michael Shaughnessy, senior vice president of supply chains at Balsam Brands, a multinational holiday decor company.
Companies that sell Christmas ornaments, gifts, and toys tell WIRED that April is usually the time when retailers lock in their orders and manufacturing begins. If they can’t start making products soon, they will face a time crunch later in the year, higher shipping rates, and may potentially miss their sales window. As a result, US customers will likely see fewer options on store shelves and be forced to pay more for their usual Christmas purchases this year.
“Things will be more expensive and there will be fewer choices,” says Jim McCann, the founder of 1-800-Flowers, which sells a wide variety of holiday gifts, greeting cards, and food baskets. “Retailers won’t be forced to discount like they have in the past because there’ll be no reason to.”
The Clock Is Ticking
For people in the Christmas business, work starts for next year as soon as the holiday ends. Until recently, this supply chain was a well-oiled machine, with everyone carrying out their duty at the right time of the year, collectively building up to the grand festive finale.
Rick Woldenberg, CEO of educational toy manufacturer Learning Resources, gave WIRED a breakdown of the timeline: Placing orders and having factories manufacture the products takes three months, and then shipping them from China to the US takes another two. That means, if a company is aiming to have its inventory begin arriving at US warehouses by mid-September to begin preparing for the December holiday season, they really need to start working now, in April.
Earlier this month, Woldenberg sued the Trump administration over the tariffs, alleging the president overstepped his authority by introducing such broad import duties. “We are trying to stand up for ourselves and protect our rights,” he says. “We need help now. The sooner the better. We want them to stop.”
Woldenberg predicts that toy store shelves won’t necessarily be empty come Christmas, because retailers may scramble to find discontinued products or other replacements to fill the gap, but they won’t necessarily be the items customers are looking for. “That is when Americans are really going to find out what a terrible idea this has been,” he says. “We had this once-in-a-millennium amazing supply chain, and it’s being torn apart for no reason.”
