Is that how the blog started—a passion for sharing the fine print?
When I lived in Washington, DC, in 2002, a bunch of people I knew were starting political blogs, but I didn’t feel like I had something unique to say that nobody was saying in that space. I thought, what is it that people ask me about? So I just started writing up travel tips. One weekend in May I set up a free account at Blogspot.com and started writing for, you know, 30 people reading it, and then 500, and then 1,000. Last month, June, blog traffic dipped a bit to 5.5 million visitors, but in March it was up to 7.5 million.
All right then, let’s talk numbers. Every point system feels a little different than the last. It’s hard to know what, say, 100,000 miles is really worth when it comes to any given loyalty program. What’s your method?
So, I have a close idea of the value of each currency. I value a Marriott point at 65 basis points, for example, and a Hilton point at around 40 or 45, which is about where I value an IHG point, whereas I value a Hyatt point at 1.4 cents, which is around what I’m valuing an American and a United mile at. I’m valuing a Delta mile at about a penny, a Virgin mile at about nine-tenths of a cent.
Using those metrics as a rule of thumb, how do you make the most of your miles?
You want to think about the value of miles as a private currency. There’s no central bank, and it’s going to be subject to a given price level. The simplest model for this is the same sort of analysis you would do with inflation for a government-issued currency. Take the simple monetarist formula, MV equals PQ. The amount of money in the economy times velocity, or the speed at which it’s spent, is going to be equivalent to the amount of Q, quantity, the amount of goods in the economy, and P, the price level, right?
Yes, right. I knew that.
Price is affected by the quantity of seats on planes. Airlines have gotten quite good at what they call capacity discipline and not flying flights that aren’t selling. They’re printing a lot more miles than are being redeemed in a given year, and there are a lot more ways to earn the miles.
How can a newbie get started?
Don’t leave miles on the table. Sign up for programs. Track your points. I use AwardWallet, but keep track of your accounts however you want to do it. Grab your account number when you’re buying something online and go through a shopping portal. Maximize it by comparing portals, whether it’s something like Savewise or Cashback Monitor.
You sound like someone who, like any good points hacker, knows their way around Microsoft Excel.
I don’t really use spreadsheets. I have a really good memory, and I’ve been paying attention to this stuff for almost 30 years.
